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Pronunciation varies by accent · noun
One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy..
On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.
An important lesson taught by the gaming approach to warfare is that the superforecaster must be always open to 'unknown unknowns', to use the decision-theoretic jargon popularized by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war.
The superforecasters turned out to outperform the other contestants by a substantial margin in the second and third years of the tournament, that is, they were not just lucky.
Use superforecaster when its meaning, tone and grammar fit the full sentence. A synonym is not always a direct replacement.
Superforecaster means One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy..
The closest synonym depends on the sentence and intended sense.
The opposite depends on the specific sense.
On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.
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